FOOTBALL BETTING

The following does not contain any "sure fire" systems for football betting, but examines the principles needed to be a successful punter. The following suggestions require access to football statistics and team form, for which www.soccerbase.com is excellent. Keeping a record of all bets is vital to long-term success in football betting. Cross referencing home and away form allows an approximate guide to a match. Consider a Championship match between Sheffield United and Wolves. Sheffield's home form reads 5-4-11, while Wolves' away form reads 12-4-4 Home = 5 + 4 = 9 out of 40 total games = 22.5% Draw = 4 + 4 = 8 out of 40 total games = 20% Away = 11 + 12 = 23 out of 40 total games = 57.5% Fair prices would be in the region of 3/1, 4/1 and 8/11. Obviously, this is a very rough and ready approximation and numerous factors can affect results :

Recent Form

A winning run for a team inspires confidence while a losing run may rob a team of the necessary fight to grind out a result. However, other interesting patterns emerge, especially from lesser teams that tend to be inconsistent anyway. An average side on a good or bad run can quickly go the other way.

Home Advantage

About 50% of all games end in home wins, with 25% draws 25% away wins. Home advantage really is an advantage.

Injuries

Injuries and absences can have a great impact on performance. Generally, goalkeepers and central defenders / midfielders are key players. If one (or more) is missing, football betting should be approached with caution.

Local Derbies

A further factor in football betting is the local derby, such as Liverpool v Everton or Newcastle v Sunderland. These are usually hard-fought encounters, regardless of current form. Home advantage tends to be negated as the away team is particularly motivated.

Tactical Reasons to Bet / Oppose a Team

European fixtures, the threat of relegation, financial difficulties and players being rested are all factors to consider in football betting. It is impossible to assign numerical values to these. However, a spreadsheet and form guide will provide some basic numbers that can be modified to account for other factors.

VALUE BETTING

In order to identify a value bet, make your own calculation of a team's winning chance, in percentage terms. Take the best price (decimals make the maths easier) and multiply by the winning percentage chance. A result of 1 or more = value! For a team with a 33% chance of winning, only bet if the price is better than 2/1 (decimal 3.0). 0.33 x 3 = 1 and a reasonable value bet. The team is likely to only win 1 in 3 times, so a shorter price will lead to long-term losses. Before indulging in any football betting, weigh up the winning chance and the odds on offer, deciding mathematically that the bet represents value. One final point regarding the recording of bets. The football betting log will show the accuracy of your predictions. For example, are teams to which you give a 60% winning chance actually winning 60% of the time. If not, your calculations may need revision. If you lose regularly on aways or football betting at fancy prices, your football betting log will show where improvements can be made.