Grand National

Grand National Betting Guide 2009

The Grand National is, without doubt, the most famous steeplechase in the world and claims to be the most famous horse race of any description. Run at Aintree over a gruelling 4½ miles, with 30 unique obstacles to be negotiated including "The Chair" and "Becher's Brook", to name but two not to mention the 494-yard run-in, the Grand National is the ultimate test for horse and rider. The great race almost inevitably throws up a story of some kind; from the misfortune of Devon Loch in 1956, to the good fortune of Foinavon, the 100/1 winner in 1967, to the legendary Red Rum in 1973, 1974 and 1977, to Bob Champion and Aldaniti in 1981, to the National "that never was" in 1993, and beyond, the Grand National never fails to capture the imagination and stir the blood.

The story this year may revolve around Ruby Walsh, already twice a National winner, on Papillon in 2000 and Hedgehunter in 2005, or Tony McCoy, 13 times champion jockey, but without a National win.

Ruby Walsh has chosen Paul Nicholls' My Will (15/2 with Bet 365 and VC Bet) in preference to a trio of other Nicholls-trained runners, and one, Southern Vic (a standout 28/1 with Stan James) , trained by his father, Ted. In fairness, My Will has a touch of class, having finished 5th in the Hennessy Gold Cup and the Cheltenham Gold Cup in his two runs this season, and probably offers the best form of the quintet. That said, another Nicholls' runner, Big Fella Thanks (22/1 with Bet 365, Sporting Bet, Stan James and William Hill) is no forlorn hope, despite the poor record of novices in the National, and Ted Walsh (trainer of Papillon) obviously knows how to prepare a horse for the race.

Tony McCoy has chosen Butler's Cabin (9/1 with Ladbrokes), other runners owned by the legendary J.P. McManus include L'Ami (25/1 with Ladbrokes), Can't Buy Time (66/1 with VC Bet ) and Reveillez (100/1 generally). Jonjo O'Neill's Butler's Cabin would appear to be the natural choice, having once again been trained for the race after falling, when travelling well, at Becher's Brook on the second circuit in last year's National. His 5th in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup at the Cheltenham Festival was full of promise and he looks to have a major chance once again. Of the other McManus-owned runners, L'Ami, a faller in the National last year, and 10th the year before, has been in good form for his new trainer, Enda Bolger, this season, and whilst Can't Buy Time appeared to run out of stamina over 4 miles last time, the forecast "Good" going may help his cause.

There are, of course, several significant trends relating to the Grand National, notably that in the last 51 runnings no winner, with the exception of Red Rum, carried more than 11st 5lbs, and that the last 68 runnings have been won by 8-year-olds and upwards. There is a notion that 2½ mile chasers are well suited to the rigours of the National, but, in fact, since 1970 every winner had already won over at least 3 miles. That appears to rule out the topweight, Cloudy Lane (50/1 with Boylesports and Stan James), who was well-fancied when only 6th last year, and is 17lbs higher in the handicap this time around. So too does last year's winner, Comply Or Die (18/1 with Stan James and Betfred), unless, of course, he proves to be exceptional. Comply Or Die showed very little on his first two starts this season, but his 7th in the William Hill Trophy at the Cheltenham Festival, albeit beaten 25 lengths, showed that he still retains ability. On the downside, horses which ran at the Cheltenham Festival typically have a poor record in the National a comment which also applies to L'Ami and Can't Buy Time, amongst others so it may be better to swerve those runners altogether.

Amongst the 8, 9 and 10-year-olds who have won over 3 miles, or further, and are set to carry 11st 5lbs, or less, there are several runners that take the eye. The first of these is Butler's Cabin, particularly given his experience over the Aintree fences and the possible assistance of Tony McCoy, closely followed by My Will. However, former Hennessy Gold Cup winner, State of Play (14/1 with Paddy Power) goes well fresh and is not overburdened with 11st 2lbs, whilst Tom George's Kilbeggan Blade (20/1 with Ladbrokes) has been campaigned over hurdles since his narrow win in the London National at Sandown Park in December and may be well-handicapped, off just 10st 7lbs, as a result.

Older horses have a fair record in the National, with Amberleigh House winning as a 12-year-old in 2004, and Red Marauder as an 11-year-old in 2001, in recent times, although no horse older than 12 has won in the last 85 runnings of the race. This year the older brigade is represented most notably by Keith Reveley's Rambling Minister (10/1 generally), who seems better than ever at the age of 11. Rambling Minister is a sound jumper who goes on any ground, has stamina in abundance, and must have every chance of victory under just 10st 9lbs.

If there is to be a result that bucks recent trends, however, it could be provided by Willie Mullins' aptly-named Irish Invader (22/1 with Stan James), who has been campaigned over distances around 2 miles after falling over 3 miles earlier in the season. Irish Invader is much improved this season, having jumped exceptionally well to win easily on his last two starts and, if he does stay the extreme distance of the National, may well represent some value.

For history and facts about the grand national click here.