PREMIERSHIP BETTING

N.B. Any prices quoted are as of 25th October 2008.

The Premier League has grown in popularity in recent years, particularly with the increased live TV coverage. As a result, Premiership betting has increased exponentially, with vast numbers of punters betting on the Premier League. Premiership betting essentially falls into two categories, namely betting on the Premiership winners or finishing position of a particular team and betting on individual matches.

Betting on the Premier League Winners

Since its inception in 1992, only four teams have won the Premiership, namely Manchester United (1992-93, 1993-94, 1995-96, 1996-97, 1998-99, 1999-2000, 2000-01, 2002-03, 2006-07 and 2007-08), Arsenal (1997-98, 2001-02 and 2003-04), Chelsea (2004-05 and 2005-06) and Blackburn Rovers (1994-95). As a result, there is rarely value to be found in the Premiership winners market, which is invariably dominated by the "Big 4" of United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. The current best prices of 5/6 Chelsea, 5/2 Manchester United, 7/1 Liverpool and 10/1 Arsenal serve to highlight this point, with the next best (Manchester City) a best-priced 250/1.

Betting on a Team's Finishing Position Top 2, 3, 4

The same principles apply, with regard to lack of value, in backing a team to finish in the top 4 as they do to winning the Premiership.

Top 6

This market also lacks any value element, as, once again, a mere handful of teams are likely to be contenders for a top 6 place and are priced accordingly.

Relegation

Some entertainment can be had, betting to small, sensible stakes on the Premiership betting relegation market, particularly at the start of the season. It can often be profitable to back your own judgement, rather than backing the obvious relegation favourites (generally the recently promoted sides). As a case in point, your correspondent's relegation shortlist, at the start of the 2008-09 season, consisted of Hull (1/3), Middlesbrough (9/1), Blackburn (14/1) and Newcastle (22/1), along with a minimum stake interest in Spurs (40/1) after their poor start. These bets have been successfully "laid off", respectively, at odds of 11/2, 11/2, 11/2, 7/2 and 3/1, leaving your author with five winning bets, regardless of where any of the sides finish.

Betting on Individual Matches

Premiership betting on individual matches is for 90 minutes play and includes a price for the draw. It is recommended that very short-priced teams are avoided, unless forming part of accumulative bets. Mid and lower placed sides, are, by definition, inconsistent, a fact that should be considered when contemplating Premiership betting. Home sides priced at odds-against are worthy of close consideration, given the perentage of Premiership games that result in home wins.

Premiership Betting Hints

Premiership betting involves the same handicapping techniques as other sports. For those wishing to take betting on the Premier League seriously, learning football handicapping basics is vital. The logical place to start is overall match handicapping. As a punter gains experience, they may also wish to consider handicapping of individual teams. This will involve a more detailed approach, involving some sort of rating system for both home and away games. Other factors will include current form, the effects of injuries and recent head-to-head statistics. There are many online sites which can provide help. Soccerbase.co.uk is excellent for a statistical analysis of all competitions, while searchum.bestbetting.com will aid in finding the best prices. A much-used rating method in Premiership betting is examining previous results during the current and previous season in order to estimate chances of a result. However, this type of analysis for the 2007-08 Premiership season reveals some surprising results, with only the top 4 sides winning more than half their home games, Manchester United 71%, Chelsea 66%, Arsenal and Liverpool 63%. Sides finishing in the bottom half of the table, with the exception of the bottom three, drew about as many games, both home and away, as any other result. These facts should be borne in mind when viewing statistical information.